Wet-lab-validated results, including drug-repurposing candidates that blocked 91% of a fibrosis response.
In which fields will AI-driven discovery translate into real scientific and economic payoff — and how soon?
Amodei's 'compressed 21st century' makes biology the test case for AI-driven conceptual breakthroughs; the skeptical view is that AI mostly accelerates the searchable parts of science. AlphaFold remains the clearest widely recognized example so far. (Whether AI can originate important ideas at all is treated under Trajectory 1.5.)
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The ledger filled in on both sides: DeepMind reported wet-lab-validated results from its Co-Scientist system, while a 41-million-paper analysis found AI-using scientists cluster on narrower problems, and $17 billion of AI drug-discovery investment has yet to put a drug into major trials.
Wet-lab-validated results, including drug-repurposing candidates that blocked 91% of a fibrosis response.
You have this conflict between individual incentives and science as a whole
41.3-million-paper analysis: AI-using scientists publish and cite more but cluster on narrower, data-rich problems.
Over $17B invested since 2019 with no AI-discovered drug yet in significant clinical trials.