The Biggest Questions About AI
The map · 5 Humanity · 5.1 Truth, information, and democracy · 5.1.1

Authenticity

How will people establish whether a video, voice, document, identity, or event is genuine?

Chesney-Citron's 'liar's dividend' identified the deeper harm early: not that fakes are believed, but that real evidence becomes deniable. Provenance standards like C2PA are the infrastructure response.

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What changed
November 2025–August 2026 · swept August 3, 2026 · editorial review pending
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Provenance infrastructure took a technical hit just as the need for it peaked: the first formal-methods audit of C2PA found its core protocols fail their own security goals, while WITNESS argued that post-Sora, detection is essential but insufficient. The courts became the sharpest test case — fabricated audio and video are reaching courtrooms faster than detection can cope, and the federal evidence-rules committee left its AI amendments 'in the bullpen.' The liar's dividend is now measured, not just theorized: falsely crying 'deepfake' outperforms apologizing.

Recent thinking
5 featured from 9 tracked · November 2025–August 2026 · all 9 chronologically →
Golaszewski, Krawetz, Sherman et al. · arXiv · 23 Apr 2026 paper
Verifying Provenance of Digital Media: Why the C2PA Specifications Fall Short
the current C2PA specifications fail to achieve their claimed security goals.

First formal-methods security analysis of the C2PA standard, finding certificate-revocation, timestamp, and validation flaws that undercut its use for journalism or legal evidence — the strongest technical rebuttal yet to provenance-as-infrastructure optimism.

Sam Gregory · Transformer · 5 Nov 2025 essay
Sora is here. The window to save visual truth is closing
tech companies must also commit to not overwhelming our feeds with AI-generated content that crowds out authentic information.

The leading authenticity-infrastructure advocate argues detection is 'essential but insufficient' after Sora, laying out what provenance, policy, and platform commitments would have to look like before trust in video collapses.

Jared Perlo · NBC News · 18 Nov 2025 news
AI-generated evidence is showing up in court. Judges say they're not ready.
The proposals were considered by the U.S. Judicial Conference's Advisory Committee on Evidence Rules when it conferred in May, but they were not approved.

Reports the reference case for AI evidence in courts — a deepfake video caught via metadata in a California housing dispute — and the federal evidence-rules committee's decision to hold AI amendments back.

Grohmann, Halle & Appel · Psychology of Popular Media · Jan 2026 paper · via When "Fake" Becomes a Defense: The Psychology of Deepfakes
Deepfake! A Liar's Dividend for Audiovisual Material
False deepfake claims made by politicians do pay a liar's dividend in the form of higher perceived leadership abilities.

Experimental confirmation of the liar's-dividend hypothesis in the framing: falsely crying 'deepfake' beats apologizing and works by making viewers doubt genuine footage.

Joseph Ax & Helen Coster · Reuters · 28 Mar 2026 news
AI deepfakes blur reality in 2026 US midterm campaigns
the clip is an AI-generated ad from the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), the party's Senate campaign arm, featuring a computer-altered Talarico

Documents official party organs producing deepfakes of opponents in the 2026 cycle — moving fabrication from fringe actors to mainstream campaign practice.

Additional relevant discussion (4)
Substackers Say New AI Detection Tool Is a 'Witch Hunt' — Emanuel Maiberg · 404 Media · 28 Jul 2026
State AI deepfake laws face first big test in 2026 midterm elections — Austin Jenkins · Pluribus News · 21 Jul 2026
How to keep deepfakes out of court — Duke Law (Grimm & Grossman) · 12 Jan 2026
How Claude’s text watermark works — Anthropic · 14 Aug 2026
Foundational reading (2)Deep Fakes: A Looming ChallengeChesney & Citron, California Law Review · 2019Coalition for Content Provenance and Authenticity (C2PA)C2PA
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